{"schema":"hottub-news/story/v1","story":"st_itak3bddqgu46bocb53q","title":"瑞銀稱Fed選前10月升息機率遭高估，料未來一年升幅定價降至75基點","title_en":"UBS says the probability of a Fed rate hike in October before the election was overestimated, expects the price of the future increase to drop to 75 basis points in the next year","outlets":1,"brief":null,"page":"https://hottub.news/stories/ubs-says-the-probability-of-a-fed-rate-hike-in-october-before-the-itak3bddqg","count":1,"items":[{"id":"n_itak3bddqgu46bocb53q","seq":618572,"kind":"article","title":"瑞銀稱Fed選前10月升息機率遭高估，料未來一年升幅定價降至75基點","title_en":"UBS says the probability of a Fed rate hike in October before the election was overestimated, expects the price of the future increase to drop to 75 basis points in the next year","url":"https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news/%E7%91%9E%E9%8A%80%E7%A8%B1fed%E9%81%B8%E5%89%8D10%E6%9C%88%E5%8D%87%E6%81%AF%E6%A9%9F%E7%8E%87%E9%81%AD%E9%AB%98%E4%BC%B0-%E6%96%99%E6%9C%AA%E4%BE%86-%E5%B9%B4%E5%8D%87%E5%B9%85%E5%AE%9A%E5%83%B9%E9%99%8D%E8%87%B375%E5%9F%BA%E9%BB%9E-081239230.html","summary":"【財訊快報／陳孟朔】瑞銀分析師潘恩(Simon Penn)週一發表最新報告，市場目前對聯準會(Fed)10月28日會議的升息機率定價約69%，但瑞銀認為預期偏高。其統計指出，自1990年以來，Fed從未在緊鄰11月美國大選的10月會議升息；瑞銀因而主張將未來一年累計升息幅度的市場定價，由約91個基點下修至75個基點。潘恩指出，選前10月未升息的歷史紀錄，不能保證這次決議相同。過去Fed曾在2004年、2018年及2022年的選前9月會議升息，顯示通膨與經濟情勢仍會影響政策選擇。瑞銀認為，市場若降低對10月升息的押注，12月會議的累計升息定價可能由目前約38個基點，回到...","published":"2026-09-29T08:12:39Z","seen":"2026-09-29T08:39:30Z","lang":"zh","country":"TW","source":{"id":"kite-tw-news-yahoo-com-ae7227","name":"tw.news.yahoo.com","domain":"tw.news.yahoo.com"},"via":"kite-tw-news-yahoo-com-ae7227","entities":[{"id":"Q193199","name":"UBS","type":"org"}],"story":"st_itak3bddqgu46bocb53q","category":"economy-business","category_p":0.8100000023841858,"sentiment":"negative","tone":-0.3700000047683716,"political":0.3400000035762787}]}