{"schema":"hottub-news/story/v1","story":"st_qt6nd6r7j4xbfudrahca","title":"Prognosemärkte: So präzise hat Polymarket die US-Vorwahlen vorhergesagt","title_en":"Prediction markets: How precise Polymarket predicted the US primaries","outlets":1,"brief":null,"page":"https://hottub.news/stories/prediction-markets-how-precise-polymarket-predicted-the-us-primaries-qt6nd6r7j4","count":2,"items":[{"id":"n_tvk57khpcyyu2wyxkl2a","seq":650387,"kind":"article","title":"Prognosemärkte: So präzise hat Polymarket die US-Vorwahlen vorhergesagt","url":"https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/usa-wie-praezise-hat-polymarket-die-us-vorwahlen-vorhergesagt/100253622.html","summary":"Das Handelsblatt hat die Wahlausgänge ausgewählter US-Primaries ausgewertet und mit den entsprechenden Prognosemarkt-Wetten abgeglichen. Sind die Plattformen ein guter Indikator?","published":"2026-09-29T09:57:00Z","seen":"2026-09-29T11:15:43Z","lang":"de","country":"DE","source":{"id":"kite-handelsblatt-com-3b4d32","name":"handelsblatt.com","domain":"handelsblatt.com","outlet":{"wikidata":"Q819697","name":"Handelsblatt","type":"newspaper","country":"DE","designations":["business newspaper","daily newspaper","news website","online newspaper"]}},"via":"kite-handelsblatt-com-3b4d32","topics":["international"],"authors":["Tom Thiele, Gunter Nowy"],"image":"https://images.handelsblatt.com/39LtfR81kx9T/cover/900/506/0/0/191/289/0.5/0.5/people-walk-by-madison-square-garden-in-new-york-on-july-1-2026.-increasing-signs-point-to-a-mega-b.jpg","story":"st_qt6nd6r7j4xbfudrahca","category":"politics","category_p":0.28999999165534973,"category2":"economy-business","sentiment":"neutral","tone":-0.009999999776482582,"political":0.23999999463558197},{"id":"n_qt6nd6r7j4xbfudrahca","seq":242027,"kind":"article","title":"Prognosemärkte: So präzise hat Polymarket die US-Vorwahlen vorhergesagt","title_en":"Prediction markets: How precise Polymarket predicted the US primaries","url":"https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/prognosemaerkte-so-praezise-hat-polymarket-die-us-vorwahlen-vorhergesagt/100253622.html","summary":"Das Handelsblatt hat die Wahlausgänge aller US-Primaries ausgewertet und mit den entsprechenden Prognosemarkt-Wetten abgeglichen. Sind die Plattformen ein guter Indikator?","published":"2026-09-27T12:01:02Z","seen":"2026-09-27T12:18:32Z","lang":"de","country":"DE","source":{"id":"kite-handelsblatt-com-3b4d32","name":"handelsblatt.com","domain":"handelsblatt.com","outlet":{"wikidata":"Q819697","name":"Handelsblatt","type":"newspaper","country":"DE","designations":["business newspaper","daily newspaper","news website","online newspaper"]}},"via":"kite-handelsblatt-com-3b4d32","topics":["international"],"authors":["Tom Thiele, Gunter Nowy"],"entities":[{"id":"Q123502863","name":"Polymarket","type":"org"}],"image":"https://images.handelsblatt.com/39LtfR81kx9T/cover/900/506/0/0/240/240/0.5/0.5/people-walk-by-madison-square-garden-in-new-york-on-july-1-2026.-increasing-signs-point-to-a-mega-b.jpg","mentions":3,"story":"st_qt6nd6r7j4xbfudrahca","category":"politics","category_p":0.28999999165534973,"category2":"economy-business","sentiment":"neutral","tone":-0.009999999776482582,"political":0.23999999463558197}]}