{"schema":"hottub-news/story/v1","story":"st_zc5wevoawz7hecbtdr3q","title":"RAND's extinction report estimates one side of an inequality","title_en":null,"outlets":1,"brief":null,"page":"https://hottub.news/stories/rands-extinction-report-estimates-one-side-of-an-inequality-zc5wevoawz","count":1,"items":[{"id":"n_zc5wevoawz7hecbtdr3q","seq":602878,"kind":"article","title":"RAND's extinction report estimates one side of an inequality","url":"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DmKJizM4hdPAwiudX/rand-s-extinction-report-estimates-one-side-of-an-inequality","summary":"Epistemic Status: I am positive that the RAND report[1], as it is written, contains a missing parameter in their inference chain. I am 80% certain that if the parameter was to be estimated, we would find coordination lag to be empirically proven to be greater than expected time to risk maturation - and it would make the conclusions of the report different in terms of policy recommendations. I base this confidence in observing the data that the report itself uses to argue for…","published":"2026-09-29T06:44:41Z","seen":"2026-09-29T07:12:03Z","lang":"en","source":{"id":"kite-lesswrong-com-7072cb","name":"lesswrong.com","domain":"lesswrong.com","outlet":{"wikidata":"Q13980547","name":"Less Wrong","type":"website","designations":["group blog","internet forum"]}},"via":"kite-lesswrong-com-7072cb","topics":["ai"],"authors":["Marko Katavic"],"entities":[{"id":"Q2194369","name":"Rand","type":"org"}],"story":"st_zc5wevoawz7hecbtdr3q","category":"environment","category_p":0.3499999940395355,"category2":"science-technology","sentiment":"neutral","tone":-0.25999999046325684,"political":0.25999999046325684}]}